Algoma Steel Group Stock Performance

ASTL Stock   6.25  0.25  3.85%   
On a scale of 0 to 100, Algoma Steel holds a performance score of 5. The firm shows a Beta (market volatility) of 2.7, which signifies a somewhat significant risk relative to the market. As the market goes up, the company is expected to outperform it. However, if the market returns are negative, Algoma Steel will likely underperform. Please check Algoma Steel's coefficient of variation, jensen alpha, and the relationship between the downside deviation and standard deviation , to make a quick decision on whether Algoma Steel's price patterns will revert.

Risk-Adjusted Performance

Mild

 
Weak
 
Strong
Compared to the overall equity markets, risk-adjusted returns on investments in Algoma Steel Group are ranked lower than 5 (%) of all global equities and portfolios over the last 90 days. In spite of very abnormal basic indicators, Algoma Steel displayed solid returns over the last few months and may actually be approaching a breakup point. ...more
Forward Dividend Yield
0.0343
Payout Ratio
0.3854
Forward Dividend Rate
0.28
Dividend Date
2025-05-30
Ex Dividend Date
2025-05-13
1
How Algoma Steel Group Inc. stock benefits from digital adoption - Trade Risk Summary Community Trade Idea Sharing - Newser
12/04/2025
2
Growth Value Will Algoma Steel Group Inc. stock benefit from MA activity - 2025 Earnings Surprises AI Powered Trade Plan Recommendations - moha.gov.vn
12/29/2025
3
Jefferies initiates hold rating on Algoma Steel as tariffs overshadow transforma - Investing.com
01/02/2026
4
Algoma Steel Group Maintained at Buy at Stifel Canada as It Updates 2026 Estimates Price Target Kept at C11.50 - MarketScreener
01/09/2026
5
Zacks Research Upgrades Algoma Steel Group to Strong-Buy - MarketBeat
01/14/2026
6
Institutional investors may adopt severe steps after Algoma Steel Group Inc.s latest 11 percent drop adds to a year losses - Yahoo Finance
01/22/2026
7
Assessing Algoma Steel Group Valuation After Hanwha Ocean Defense Agreement Spurs Fresh Interest - Sahm
01/29/2026
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Do Options Traders Know Something About Algoma Steel Stock We Dont - Nasdaq
02/10/2026
9
MMCAP International Inc. SPC Has 28.72 Million Stake in Algoma Steel Group Inc. ASTL - MarketBeat
02/23/2026
Begin Period Cash Flow251.3 M
Total Cashflows From Investing Activities-272.2 M
  

Algoma Steel Relative Risk vs. Return Landscape

If you would invest  544.00  in Algoma Steel Group on November 30, 2025 and sell it today you would earn a total of  81.00  from holding Algoma Steel Group or generate 14.89% return on investment over 90 days. Algoma Steel Group is generating 0.3238% of daily returns and assumes 4.3968% volatility on return distribution over the 90 days horizon. Simply put, 39% of stocks are less volatile than Algoma, and 94% of all equity instruments are likely to generate higher returns than the company over the next 90 trading days.
  Expected Return   
       Risk  
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Algoma Steel is expected to generate 5.8 times more return on investment than the market. However, the company is 5.8 times more volatile than its market benchmark. It trades about 0.07 of its potential returns per unit of risk. The Dow Jones Industrial is currently generating roughly 0.08 per unit of risk.

Algoma Steel Target Price Odds to finish over Current Price

The tendency of Algoma Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 6.25 90 days 6.25 
about 26.6
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Algoma Steel to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 26.6 (This Algoma Steel Group probability density function shows the probability of Algoma Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.7 . This suggests as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Algoma Steel will likely underperform. Additionally Algoma Steel Group has an alpha of 0.26, implying that it can generate a 0.26 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta).
   Algoma Steel Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Algoma Steel

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Algoma Steel Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
2.016.4110.81
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
1.595.9910.39
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
1.936.3310.73
Details
Earnings
Estimates (0)
LowProjected EPSHigh
-0.070.070.30
Details

Algoma Steel Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Algoma Steel is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Algoma Steel's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Algoma Steel Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Algoma Steel within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
0.26
β
Beta against Dow Jones2.70
σ
Overall volatility
0.40
Ir
Information ratio 0.09

Algoma Steel Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Algoma Steel for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Algoma Steel Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Algoma Steel Group had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
The company reported the revenue of 2.45 B. Net Loss for the year was (222.67 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (405.07 M).
Algoma Steel generates negative cash flow from operations
Over 80.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: MMCAP International Inc. SPC Has 28.72 Million Stake in Algoma Steel Group Inc. ASTL - MarketBeat

Algoma Steel Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Algoma Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Algoma Steel's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Algoma Steel's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding108.5 M
Cash And Short Term Investments267 M

Algoma Steel Fundamentals Growth

Algoma Stock prices reflect investors' perceptions of the future prospects and financial health of Algoma Steel, and Algoma Steel fundamentals are critical determinants of its market performance. Overall, investors pay close attention to revenue and earnings growth, profit margins, and debt levels. These fundamentals can have a significant impact on Algoma Stock performance.

About Algoma Steel Performance

By examining Algoma Steel's fundamental ratios, stakeholders can obtain critical insights into Algoma Steel's financial health, operational efficiency, and overall profitability. These insights assist in making well-informed investment and management decisions. For example, a high Return on Assets and Return on Equity would indicate that Algoma Steel is effectively utilizing its assets and equity to generate significant profits, enhancing its appeal to investors. On the other hand, low ROA and ROE values could reveal issues in asset and equity management, highlighting the need for operational improvements.
Last ReportedProjected for Next Year
Days Of Inventory On Hand 112.39  72.13 
Return On Tangible Assets(0.06)(0.06)
Return On Capital Employed(0.10)(0.09)
Return On Assets(0.06)(0.06)
Return On Equity(0.17)(0.16)

Things to note about Algoma Steel Group performance evaluation

Checking the ongoing alerts about Algoma Steel for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Stock alerts and notifications screener for Algoma Steel Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Algoma Steel Group had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days
The company reported the revenue of 2.45 B. Net Loss for the year was (222.67 M) with loss before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of (405.07 M).
Algoma Steel generates negative cash flow from operations
Over 80.0% of the company shares are held by institutions such as insurance companies
Latest headline from news.google.com: MMCAP International Inc. SPC Has 28.72 Million Stake in Algoma Steel Group Inc. ASTL - MarketBeat
Evaluating Algoma Steel's performance can involve analyzing a variety of financial metrics and factors. Some of the key considerations to evaluate Algoma Steel's stock performance include:
  • Analyzing Algoma Steel's financial statements, including its income statement, balance sheet, and cash flow statement, helps in understanding its overall financial health and growth potential.
  • Getting a closer look at valuation ratios like price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio, price-to-sales (P/S) ratio, and price-to-book (P/B) ratio help in understanding whether Algoma Steel's stock is overvalued or undervalued compared to its peers.
  • Examining Algoma Steel's industry or sector and how it is performing can give you an idea of its growth potential and how it is positioned relative to its competitors.
  • Evaluating Algoma Steel's management team can have a significant impact on its success or failure. Reviewing the track record and experience of Algoma Steel's management team can help you assess the Company's leadership.
  • Pay attention to analyst opinions and ratings of Algoma Steel's stock. These opinions can provide insight into Algoma Steel's potential for growth and whether the stock is currently undervalued or overvalued.
It's essential to remember that evaluating Algoma Steel's stock performance is not an exact science, and many factors can impact Algoma Steel's stock market price. Therefore, it's also important to diversify your portfolio and not rely solely on one company or stock for your investments.
When determining whether Algoma Steel Group is a strong investment it is important to analyze Algoma Steel's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact Algoma Steel's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding Algoma Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Trending Equities to better understand how to build diversified portfolios, which includes a position in Algoma Steel Group. Also, note that the market value of any company could be closely tied with the direction of predictive economic indicators such as signals in inflation.
You can also try the Portfolio Diagnostics module to use generated alerts and portfolio events aggregator to diagnose current holdings.
Understanding that Algoma Steel's value differs from its trading price is crucial, as each reflects different aspects of the company. Evaluating whether Algoma Steel represents a sound investment requires analyzing earnings trends, revenue growth, technical signals, industry dynamics, and expert forecasts. Conversely, Algoma Steel's market price signifies the transaction level at which participants voluntarily complete trades.